Kontra Peningkatan SDM

Pro Kontra Peningkatan SDM
Oleh : Drs. H. A. Hamdan, M.M
Didalam Sistem Pendidikan Nasional telah dijelaskan bahwa tanggung jawab pendidikan merupakan tanggung jawab bersama, antara Pemerintah, Masyarkat dan Orang Tua Siswa. Untuk itu wajar bila dalam tatanan Good Governance dikembangkan konsep kebersamaan antara Private sector, Goverment dan Society. Dengan demikian wajarlah bila ada suatu keinginan dari masyarakat atau komunitas tertentu untuk berpartisipasi aktif mengembangkan kualitas SDM, karena meningkatkan sumber daya manusia bukan ansih tanggung jawab pemerintah, tanggung jawab perusahaan ataupun tanggung jawab individu, melainkan tanggung jawab bersama sesuai dengan kemampuan potensi yang melekat pada setiap institusi. Sungguh menjadi sebuah dambaan bila semua pihak mengarah pada sikap kebersamaan untuk mensukseskan sebuah program, kendatipun inisiatif program itu datangnya dari mana saja, tapi kalau outputnya dapat meningkatkan kualitas SDM, kenapa harus diperdebatkan dan harus dipertentangkan. Orang bijak mengatakan Kalau kita ingin maju janganlah mengedepankan siapa yang akan punya nama tapi mampukah kita memberikan bantuan kepada orang lain yang punya niat baik. Waliktoa Sukabumi H. Mokh Muslikh Abdussyukur, SH, M.Si sering memberikan petuah kepada stafnya. Poma ulah sok ngaliarkeun taleus ateul, komo bari jeung sirik pidik hiri dengki jail kaniaya . Pepatah itu banyak mengandung makna positif bagi insane manusia agar termotivasi saling membantu dan saling mendukung dalam membangun Kota Sukabumi yang kita cintai ini. Kalaupun berbeda pendapat, beda pemikiran, beda kepentingan, beda pengalaman, beda kemapuan, beda cara dan beda segmennya, beda litelatur, beda keyakinan, beda pendidikan ataupun beda agama, janganlan menjadi pemicu kearah pertengkaran yang tak bermakna. Lebih baik kita merenung bahwa manusia itu tidak sempurna, dan tidak akan mampu menjangkau pemikiran orang lain, kecuali kita berusaha memahami pemikiran orang lain agar membawa hikmah bagi kemajuan bersama.
Harus diingat manakala sikap menghalangi dan iri yang dilandasi kecemburuan social terhadap kemampuan orang lain dalam menjalankan program kemanusian, maka dalam dirinya akan muncul sikap kebinatangan yang memandang orang lain itu sebagai musuh yang akan mengganggu kepentingannya. Jika terus berkembang sikap permusuhan jidal dan Fusuko maka bersiap-siaplah menerima peringatan yang maha dahsyat dari Allah SWT. Sesungguhnya bagi kaum intelektual di Indonesia, termasuk para penulis dan jurnalis senior atau yang baru belajar menjadi pengamat sosial, mau belajar dari fenomena alam yang semakin rusak ini, baik dari guncangan gempa bumi, gunung meletus, banjir bandang, penyakit menular, AIDS. Itu semuanya tidak semata-mata terjadi, melainkan peringatan dari Allah SWT, karena disana sini orang semakin kejam untuk saling hujat dan saling menyalahkan, tanpa disadari dalam dirinya penuh keterbatasan dan penuh kedurhakaan bahkan mungkin ada sifat jahat untuk menjatuhkan orang lain yang belum diketahui oleh orang lain. Sebagai ilustrasi mari kita amati modus operandi demontrasi apakah murni ingin memperbaiki keadaan? Ataukah ada kepentingan dirinya yang terganggu? Ataukah ada keinginan untuk memaksakan kehendak? Benarkah yang berinisiatif demontrasi itu punya idelisme murni? Jangan-jangan hanya mencari identitas dirinya supaya diakui oleh public disebut sebagai kaum pergerakan sehingga meningkatkan rating popularitas di dalam dirinya! Penulis mencoba membawa alam pikiran para pembaca untuk bersama-sama kembali pada jati diri kita masing-masing, mampukah kita mengembangkan potensi yang di anugrahkan Allah SWT terhadap diri kita, sampai sejauh mana kita mempunyai roja keinginan yang menggebu di dalam diri agar memberi manfaat bagi orang lain. khoerunnas anfauhum linnas . Jangan lah sekali-kali teori competitif addfentive itu disalah artikan kemampuan bersaing dengan menghalalkan segala cara.
Marilah kita artikan bahwa kemampuan bersaing itu bukan berusaha mengalahkan orang lain agar kita berkuasa, melainkan kita keluarkan potensi kita secara optimal sehingga dengan sendirinya orang akan merasakan manfaatnya keberadaan diri kita, mari kita menoleh pada tarikh Islam, bagaiman perjuangan Siti Hajar untuk mempertahankan hidup Nabi Ismail dari ancaman kehausan yang digambarkan dari fenomena sa i. bagaiman perjuangan Siti Sarah sampai dikaruniai anak menjadi Nabi Ishak. Keduanya bersaing bukan dengan cara saling menjelekan atau mencari kesalahan, melainkan mengeluarkan potensi dalam dirinya secara optimal. Kalaulah seorang penulis ingin maju mari kita tingkatkan kempuan yang sudah ada ke arah yang lebih baik, lantas siapa yang bertanggung jawab peningkatan SDM setiap penulis, apakah tanggung jawab perusahaan industri pers, apakah tanggung jawab organisasi pers, apakah tanggung jawab pemerintah, apakah tanggung jawab perguruan tinggi, ataukah tanggung jawab masyarakat ataukah tanggung jawab dirinya sendiri. Alangkah lebih arifnya dan lebih bermakna, manakalah seluruh fihak mengoptimalkan potensi yang melekat pada dirinya, dengan mengesampingkan rasa ketersinggungan di dalam dirinya baik dari sikap, ucap, perbuatan ataupun yang tersimpan dalam hatinya..Yakinilah bahwa manusia itu selain mahluk individu tapi juga sekaligus sebagai
mahluk sosial. Yakinilah bahwa popularitas kita, ketokohan kita, keberhasilan kita kesenioran kita, kepandaian kita, kecerdikan kita, keselamatan yang kita rasakan bukan semata-mata ansih kemampuan kita, tapi ada kontribusi dari peran orang lain yang diridhoi Allah SWT. Silahlah renungkan sehebat apaun kita mampu menulis,mampu mencari berita,pandai mengambil dan merekayasa gambar apabila tidak dibantu oleh nara sumber, apabila tidak ada yang mau membaca atau tidak ada yang mau menonton, tidak ada yang mau mendengar. Adakah manfaatnya hasil jerih payah kita? Saling membantu dan saling menopang akan lebih bermakna dibandingkan kita merasa lebih hebat dari orang lain, kehebatan kita pada akhirnya akan berkurang ditelan masa, tapi bantuan orang lain tidak akan pernah sirna dalam kehidupan manusia, sebagai ilustrasi orang pandai dan cerdik dikala sudah udzur akan pikun juga, orang sehat dan kuat fisiknya setelah uzur tak akan mampu bergerak apalagi bila ajal sudah mendekat, Namun bantuan orang lain sejak kita di dalam kandungan ibu sampai liang lahat pasti dibantu oleh orang lain. Silahkan dikaji kejadian kita menjadi sosok manusia sempurna ini. Benarkah atas bantuan orang lain, jika itu difahami maka jadikanlah perbedaan itu sebagai hikmah dari kemaha besaran Allah SWT, walaupun kita sadari bahwa orang yang berbudi pekerti luhur yang
bisa menyadari penomena itu, Lain lagi bagi orang yang merasa kepentingannya terganggu dan terobsesi dari kecemburuan sosial akan terpancar dalam dirinya merasa paling benar. Merasa paling baik bahkan bisa saja alergi untuk bersama-sama mengembangkan diri dalam satu kesamaan visi Sumber Daya Manusia yang berkualitas.
(Info. BK. 01)

Diklat Entry Point Peningkatan SDM
Oleh : Drs. H.A. Hamdan, M.M
Sekolah Dasar CBM Gunung Puyuh adalah salah satu sekolah unggulan di Kota Sukabumi yang mampu mewakili Jawa Barat ke Tingkat Nasional untuk lomba UKS tahun 2006. Untuk itu POLANTAS dari Polresta Sukabumi memberikan warna untuk sekolah CBM dalam meraih juara UKS dengan cara melatih Polisi Kecil Sekolah (PKS). Hal ini seperti yang dilakukan pada tanggal 10 Maret 2006.
Diklat lainnya yang dipandang mampu menjadi entry point peningkatan SDM adalah gerakan Pramuka, bahkan Kota Sukabumi ingin mengambil bagian dalam mewujudkan Jawa Barat sebagai Propinsi Pramuka, melalui aktivitas DIKLAT Pramuka di Bumi Perkemahan Cikundul.
Salah satu bukti komitmen Walikota Sukabumi H. Mokh Muslikh Abdussyukur, SH., M.Si., dalam gerakan pramuka selalu merespon positif setiap kegiatan pramuka, seperti halnya Perjusami yang diprakarsai oleh Kwaran Warudoyong pada tanggal 11 Maret 2006 memdapat kunjungan kehormatan dari Walikota Sukabumi, baik dalam kapasitasnya sebagai Mabicab maupun Kwarcab Pramuka.
Wajarlah bila H. Mokh. Muslikh Abdussyukur, SH., M.Si., selalu dipertahankan oleh Gerakan Pramuka Kota Sukabumi unuk tetap menjadi Kwarcab, bahkan satu hal yang sangat menggembirakan insan pramuka Kota Sukabumi dibawah kepemimpinan Ka Muslikh mendapat predikat Kwarcab Tergiat tahun 2006 di Jawa Barat. Atas keberhasilan itu mendorong motivasi para pengurus Kwarcab Pramuka Kota
Sukabumi periode 2006-2011 untuk terus beraktivitas meningkatakan kegiatan Pramuka dan mengelola Buper Cikundul secara profesional yang memberikan kontribusi terhadap pencapaian Visi Kota Sukabumi sebagai pusat pelayanan jasa terpadu dibidang perdagangan, pendidikan dan kesehatan. Sehingga menjadi entry point peningkaan SDM berkualitas yang dicita-citakan dalam Visi Jawa Barat Dengan iman dan taqwa menjadi propinsi termaju dan mitra terdepan Ibu Kota RI . Disela-sela kesibukannya Walikota Sukabumi H. Mokh. Muslikh Abdussyukur, SH., M.Si. , masih sempat memberikan perhatian kepada keluarganya untuk merayakan Ulang tahun Bapak Aris di Cibebeur Cianjur pada tanggal 12 Maret 2006. Hal ini sebagai salah satu manajemen waktu yang patut di contoh oleh seluruh stafnya. Ternyata sesibuk apapun dalam melayani kepentingan masyarakat, bila waktunya di menej secara tepat akan memberikan kenyamanan bagi semua fihak.
Manajemen waktu perlu latihan secara cermat, karena sebagai pegawai yang baik dalam era global ini janganlah sekali-kali menyatakan kepada pimpinan itu tentang Kesibukan anda tapi tunjukanlah ini hasil kerja anda . Orang yang mampu memenej waktu akan terhindar dari perasaan stress yang diakibatkan berbagai persoalan hidup dan kehidupan anda. Bila tidak mampu memenej waktu maka akan termasuk orang yang merugi, silahkan baca surat Al-Ashr. Bagi para PNS yang mampu melatih diri memanej waktu sejak masa diklat prajabatan, akan mampu menunjukan karya yang terbaik dan mampu berprestasi sesuai dengan kapasitas kemampuannya masing-masing. Hal ini seperti nampak dalam penutupan Diklat Prajabatan Golongan III angkatan I tanggal 13 Maret 2006 telah terpilih peserta terbaik yang mampu mengatur waktu secara cermat selama mengikuti diklat, sehingga diharapkan dimasa mendatang akan menjadi SDM yang berkualitas untuk membawa Sukabumi kearah yang lebih baik. Salah satu implementasi manajemen waktu bisa kita lihat disaat Pemerintah Daerah Kota Sukabumi membagikan Sumbangan Langsung Tunai (SLT) tanggal 14 Maret 2006. Disana telah diatur tentang waktu pengambilan bagi setiap warga miskin, sehingga disaat dilakukan sidak oleh Walikota Sukabumi H. Mokh. Muslikh Abdussyukur, SH., M.Si., tidak terdapat tumpukan orang dalam antrian. Dan ini merupakan wujud konkrit dari pelayanan publik yang diberikan oleh Pemerintah Daerah Kota Sukabumi. Satu hal yang menarik dalam pembagian SLT tahap ke dua yang dibagikan tanggal 14
Maret 2006, yaitu Kapolresta Sukabumi SKBP Arif Ontowiriyo memberikan hadiah bagi POLSEK yang paling baik dalam memberikan rasa aman kepada para pengambil SLT yang sudah diatur waktu pengambilannya itu. Untuk mengetahui lebih dekat tentang pelaksanaan pembagian SLT di wilayah Kota Sukabumi, dilakukan sidak kesetiap Kecamatan oleh Walikota Sukabumi didampingi oleh Kapolresta, Kepala BPS Hj. Enung Gandirum, dan Kepala Kantor POS Sukabumi, Ekonomi Pembangunan Ir. H. Fifi Kusumajaya, MM, serta unsur media massa.
Sidak dimulai dari Kantor pos Ahmad Yani yang memberikan pelayanan bagi warga Kecamatan Gunung Puyuh dengan Kecaman Warudoyong, kemudian rombongan meluncur ke Kantor Kelurahan Sriwidari yang melayani warga Kecamaan Gunung Puyuh. Dari sana meluncur ke Kantor Kecamatan Cibeureum yang melayani warga Kecamatan Cibeureum. Seperti sering diungkapkan oleh Walikota Sukabumi berguru pada yang lalu belajar pada yang sudah makanya disaat melakukan peninjauan ke Kantor Kecamatan Baros yang melayani warga masyarakat pengambil SLT dari Kecamtan Baros, nampak tidak terlalu repot, bahkan petugas tidak terlalu disibukan, yang diistilahkan oleh Walikota menunggu penumpang. Ngetem (red). Disela-sela kegiatan pelayanan pemberian SLT, Warga Kecamatan Baros diberikan pelayanan pemeriksaan kesehatan secara cuma-cuma oleh peugas dari Dinas Kesehatan Kota Sukabumi. Nampak saat itu H. Nanang sedang melakukan tensi darah bagi para pengambil SLT. Selesai dari Kecamatan Baros, rombongan meluncur ke Kantor Kecamtan Citamiang yang melayani Warga Masyarakat Kecamtan Citamiang. Dan terakhir rombongan melaju ke Kantor Kecamatan Situmekar yang melayani warga masyarakat Kecamatan Lembur Situ. Pengalaman pembagian STL tahap pertama telah melatih dan mendidik para petugas untuk bersikap bijak, telaten, tertib dan tenang dalam melayani kepentingan masyarakat. Hal ini diperlukan manajemen yang biasa diberikan dalam dikalat kepemimpinan.
Dari berbagai penyelenggaraan diklat kepemimpinan yang diselenggarakan oleh Pemerintah Daerah Kota Sukabumi, telah menambah kesibukan baru bagi Badan Kepegawaian dan Diklat Kota Sukabumi, yaitu untuk menerima berbagai studi banding peserta dikat dari berbagai daerah, termasuk peseta DiklatPim IV Depdagri menetapkan OL di Kota Sukabumi pada tanggal 14 Maret 2006 yang diterima secara langsung oleh Assda Bidang Administrasi Drs.H. Kostaman, MM., di Ops. Room. Berikutnya pada tanggal 15 Maret 2006 Pemerintah Daerah Kota Sukabumi menerima peserta Diklat Pim IV Departemen Hukum&Ham di ruang pertemuan Pemda Kota Sukabumi. Dari beberapa pengalaman tersebut menunjukkan betapa pentingnya penyelenggaraan dan pelaksanaan Diklat secara baik sesuai dengan silabi yang ditentukan dalam Keputusan Kepala Badan Kepegawaian Negara Nomor 43/Kep/2001 tentang Standar Kompetensi Jabatan Struktural Pegawai Negeri Sipil. Standar kompetensi adalah kemampuan dan karekateristik yang dimiliko oleh seorang Pegawai Negeri Sipil berupa pengetahuan, keahlian dan sikap perilaku yang diperlukan dalm pelaksanaan tugas jabtannya. Itu semua dimaksudkan untuk efesiensi dan efektivitas pelaksanaan tugas dan tanggung jawab organisasi/unit organisasi dan untuk menciptakan optimalisasi kinerja organisasi/unit organisasi.
This document was created with Win2PDF available at http://www.win2pdf.com.
The unregistered version of Win2PDF is for evaluation or non-commercial use only.

perbankan menurut islam

BAB 1
PENDAHULUAN
A.Latar Belakang
Islam adalah kata bahasa Arab yang terambil dari kata ‘ salima’ yang berarti selamat, damai, tunduk, pasrah dan berserah diri. Objek penyerahan diri ini adalah Pencipta seluruh alam semesta, yakni Allah SWT. Dengan demikian, Islam berarti penyerahan diri kepada Allah SWT, sebagaimana tercantum dalam Al-Qur’an surat Ali Imran1, yang artinya kurang lebih sebagai berikut: “ sesungguhnya agama (yang diridhai) di sisi Allah adalah Islam…” Tegasnya, agama di sisi Allah ialah penyerahan diri yang sesungguhnya kepada Allah. Jadi walaupun seseorang mengaku beragama Islam, kalau dia tidak menyerah yang sesungguhnya kepada Allah, belumlah dia Islam, sebab dia belum menyerah/ tunduk..
Namun demikian, nasib seseorang di akhirat nanti sangat bergantung pada apa yang dikerjakannya di dunia, sebagaimana sabda Nabi Muhammad SAW “ al-dunya mazra’at al-akhirat” (dunia adalah ladang akhirat). Di sinilah letaknya peranan Islam sebagai pedoman. dan petunjuk hidup manusia di dunia. Islam memberikan petunjuk mengenai bagaimana caranya menjalani kehidupan dengan benar agar manusia dapat mencapai kebahagiaan yang didambakannya itu, baik di dunia maupun di akhirat.
B.Rumusan Masalah
Rumusan Masalah pada kasus Perbankan menurut islam
1. Apa saja nilai – nilai islam yang di hadikan sebagai landasan filosofi perbankan Syari.ah ?
2. Bangaimana penyelesaian jika terjadi sengketa antara perbankan syari.ah dan nasabahnya ?
C.Tujuan

1.Perbankan dan Islam!
2.Menjelaskan apa saja nilai – nilai islam yang di hadikan sebagai landasan filosofi perbankan Syari.ah ?
3.Menjelaskan bangaimana penyelesaian jika terjadi sengketa antara perbankan syari.ah dan nasabahnya ?





BAB II
PEMBAHASAN
A.PERBANKAN DAN ISLAM
Umat Islam dewasa ini, baik di Indonesia maupun di belahan dunia yang lain sedang mengalami kegandrungan / bergairah untuk bersama – sama mengungkapkan kembali makna Islam yang sesungguhnya serta mencari jalan dan cara menterjemahkan nilai – nilai Islam Kedalam Realita Sosio ekonomi.
Praktek hukum ekonomi Syari.ah sebenarnya telah ada sejak ummat Islam membangun masyarakat seperti halnya jual beli, sewa menyewa, gadai, zakat, dan sebagainya. Pada umumnya di lakukan sebagai hukum diyam murni, dan belum banyak melibatkan kekuasaan Negara dalam bentuk qadhai modern dimana terdapat lembaga penyelesaian sengketa, badan yang bertanggung jawab dalam melaksanakan setiap putusun yang diambil, peraturan perundang - undangan yang jelas dan lain – lain yang berhubungan, demikian ungkapan Rifyal ka.bah dalam praktek untuk ekonomi syari.ah di Indonesia.
Pada acara sosialisasi UUU NO. 3 Tahun 2006 di PTA Palu pada tanggal 21 sampai dengan 23 Mei 2007. Terkait dengan praktek perbankan syari.ah dalam makalah ini akan di bahas dua permasalahan yaitu :
B.Nilai – nilai islam yang di hadikan sebagai landasan filosofi perbankan Syari’ah
a) Kejujuran ( Honesty, Ash – Shidq)
Kejujuran merupakan hal yang harus dilakukan oleh setiap manusia dalam berbagai segi kehidupan termasuk dalam bermu.amalah, kerjujuran menjadi bukti adanya komitmen akan pentingnya perkataan yang benar sehingga dapat di jadikan pegangan, hal mana akan memberikan mamfaat bagi para pihak yang melakukan akad ( perikatan ) dan juga bagi masyarakat dan lingkungangnya.
Gemala dewi memberikan perkenaan sebagai berikut : “ jika kejujuran ini tidak di terapkan dalam perikatan, maka akan merusak legalitas perikatan itu sendiri “1 Perintah ini sesuai dengan Firman Allah SWT, Q.S. 33 :70 Artinya : “ Hai oroang – orang yang beriman , bertaqwalah kamu kepada Allah, dan katakanlah perkataan yang benar “ Di tempat lain Gemala Dewi, menyatakan sebagai berikut :“ Shidiq adalah nilai yang lebih dari keyakinan yang mendalam bahwa Allah maha tahu dan melihat setiap tindakan manusia. Nilai ini memastikan bahwa pengelolaan bank syari.ah wajib dilakukan dengan moralitas yang menjunjung tinggi nilai kejujuran”.2 Dengan demikian kejujuran merupakan nilai moral yang mendasar untuk menggapai ridha Allah dalam praktek perbanka syari.ah.
b) Kesetaraan, Faithful ( Al Musawah )
Adanya kesamaan untuk saling mempercayai yang di tuangkan dalam suatu akad menjadi factor penentu bagi kesuksesan masing – masing pihak yang terkait dengan hak dan kewajiban sehingga tidak saling merugikan keuntungan / kelebihan kepada yang lain, ada kesediaan membentuk sesama dan mau bekerja sama. Kesemuanya ini di landasi oleh nilai – nilai ketauhidan, Akadnya benar – benar dilaksanakan dengan rasa tanggungjawab bukan hanya dalam kaitanya dengan sesame, akan tetapi juga tanggung jawab terhadap Allah S.W.T, dan akan mendapat balasan-Ya. Tidak boleh ada upaya menzalimi orang lain. Firman Allah Q.S. 49 : 13 Artinya : “ Hai manusia, sesungguhnya kami menciptakan kamu dari seorang laki – laki dan seorang perempuan dan menjadikan kamuberbangsa – bangsa dan bersuku – suku supaya kamu saling kenal – mengenal.
c) Keadilan dan Kebenaran ( Justice and Equity, Al – Adialah )
Setiap akad ( Transaksi ) harus benar – benar memperhatikan rasa keadilan dan sedapat mungkin menghindari perasaan tidak adil (Dzalim ), oleh karenanya harus ada saling ridha dari masing – masing pihak.kita tidak di perkenankan mamakan harta orang lain dengan cara yang batil, kecuali dengan jalan jual beli sehingga ridha ( dalam hal ini jual beli jarah menjadi salah satu produk primadona perbankan Syari.ah. Q.S.4 :29 . Artinya : “ Hai orang – orang yang beriman, janganlah kamu saling memakan harta sesamamu dengan jalan yang batil kecuali dengan jalan perniagaan yang berlaku suka sama suka diantara kamu dan janganlah kamu membunuh dirimu, sesungguhnya Allah maha penyayang kepadamu,) Dijelaskan lagi oleh dosen mata kuliah perbankan syari.ah H. M. Arie Mooduto Pengertian suka sama suka diantaramu maksudnya dalam bentuk kesepakatan saling ridha bukan dalam bentuk maksiat kepada Allah atau menghalalkan yang haram dan sebaliknya.
C.Penyelesaian jika terjadi sengketa antara perbankan syari’ah dan nasabahnya
Bilamana terjadi sengketa atau perselisihan antara bank dan nasabahnya, maka terhadap sengketa tersebut terdapat alternative dalam penyelesaiannya. Selama ini lembaga yang menangani adalah BAMUI (Badan Arbitrase Muamalat Indonesia) yang mulai dioperasikan pada tanggal 1 Oktober 1993, lalu diganti menjadi Badan Arbitrase Syariah Nasional (DSN ) dan KUH Perdata.
Oleh karenanya sesuai dengan klausula dalam akad yang berwebang menyelesaikan setelah lembaga Alternatif penyelesaian sengketa adalah Pengadilan Negeri. Setelah lahirnya UU No. 3 tahun 2006 tentang perubahan atas UU No 7 tahun 1989 tentang pengadilan agama, di dalam pasal 49 yang berwenang memriksa, mengadili dan menyelesaikannya adalah Pengadilan Negeri Menurut Gemala Dewi dalam bukunya dinyatakan sebagai “ Penyelesaian perselisihan dalam hukum perikatan Islam, pada prinsipnya boleh dilaksanakan melalui tiga jalan, yaitu pertama dengan jalan perdamaian (Shulhu), yang kedua dengan jalan Arbitrase ( tahkim) dan yang terakhir melalui proses peradilan (Al Qadha ).
1. Shulhu (Perdamaian )
Secara bahasa “Shulhu” berarti meredam pertikaian , sedangkan menurut fiqih “shulhu: adalah “ suatu jenis akad untuk mengakhiri perlawanan antara dua orang yang saling berlawanan , atau untuk mengakhiri sengketa “6 Menurut Abdul Manan dalam makalahnya : “ Sulh “ berarti suatu jenis akad atau perjanjian untuk mengakhiri perselisihan / pertengkaran antara dua pihak yang bersengketa secara damai “ 7 Selanjutnya dikatakan ada tiga rukun yang harus dipenuhi yaitu : ijab, qabul dan lafadz dari perjanjian damai dapat diklasifikasikan sebagai berikut :
a. Hal menyangkut subyek , harus orang yang cakap bertindak menurut hukum dan mempunyai wewenang.
b. Hal yang menyangkut obyek , berbentuk harta yang dapat dinilai atau dihargai dan bermanfaat.
c. Persoalan yang boleh didamaikan hanya dalam bentuk pertikaian harta benda yang dapat dinilai dan sebatas hanya kepada hak- hak manusia yang dapat diganti .
d. Pelaksanaan perdamaian, dapat dilakukan melalui dua cara yaitu diluar sidang pengadilan atau melalui sidang pengadilan.
2. Tahkim (Arbitrase )
Tahkim berarti menjadikan seseorang sebagai penengah suatu sengketa, secara terminology berarti: “ Pengangkatan seorang atau lebih , sebagai wasit atau juru damai oleh dua orang atai lebih yang bersengketa, guna menyelesaikan perkara yang mereka perselisihkan secara damai “
3. Wilayah Al Qadha (Kekusaan Kehakiman ) Menurut Abdul Manan meliputi :
a. Al Hisbah Adalah lembaga resmi Negara yang diberi wewenang untuk menyelesaikan masalah- masalah atau pelanggaran ringan yang menurut sifatnya tidak memerlukakn proses peradilan untuk menyelesaikannya”
b. Al Madzalim
Yaitu badan yang dibentuk oleh pemerintah untuk membela orang- orang terniaya akibat sikap semena- mena dari pembesar Negara atau keluarganya, yang biasanya sulit untuk diselesaikan oleh pengadilan biasa dan kekuasaan hisbah
c. Al Qadha (Peradilan)
Al Qadha berarti memutuskan atau menetapkan, menurut istilah syara „berarti menetapkan hukum syara. pada suatu peristiwa atau sengketa untuk menyelesaikannya secara adil dan mengikat”10 Orang yang diberi wewenang untuk menyelesaikan perkara di pengadilan disebut Qadhi (Hakim) Penyelesaian sengketa melalui peradilan melewati beberapa proses, salah satu yang penting adalah pembuktian.
Adapun alat- alat bukti menurut hukum Islam meliputi :
1) Ikrar ( Pengakuan para pihak mengenai ada tidaknya sesuatu )
2) Syahadat (Persaksian )
3) Yamin (Sumpah)
4) Riddah (Murtad)
5) Maktubah (Bukti- bukti tertulis) ,seperti akta dan surat keterangan
6) Tabayyun (upaya perolehan kejelasan yang dilakukan oleh pemeriksaan Majelis Pengadilan yang lain daripada Majelis pengadilan yang memeriksa , misalnya perkara kewarisan harta ada di Cilegon sedangkan perkara di adili di Jakarta Timur ) dan
7) Alat bukti bidang pidana , seperti pembuktian secara kriminologi 11
Dalam upaya menyelesaikan sengekta berdasarkan prinsip syariah melalui lembaga peradilan masih mengalami kendala belum tersedianya hukum materiil yang berupa UU maupun kompilasi sebagai pegangan hakim dalam memutus perkara, disamping masih banyaknya aparat yang belum mengerti tentang ekonomi syariah atau hukum bisnis
Islam dan belum tersedianya lembaga penyidik khusus yang berkompeten dan menguasai hukum Syari.ah Pilihan lembaga Peradilan Agama dalam menyelesaikan sengketa ekonomi syari.ah merupakan pilihan yang tepat dan bijaksana.


BAB III
PENUTUP
A.Kesimpulan
1) Nilai - nilai Islam yang dijadikan landasan etika bisnis seperti dalam perbankan syari’ah mepiluti kejujuran (honesty), kesetaraan (faithful) dan keadilan serta kebenaran (justice and equity)
2) Bila terjadi sengketa perbankan syariah , maka ditempuh penyelesaian melalui lembaga perdamaian (shuluh), Tahkim (Arbitrase ) dan lembaga Pengadilan (Al Qadha )
B.Saran- saran
1. Agar ummat Islam terlebih para aparat penegak hokum banyak mempelajarai dan memperdalam literature ekonomi syari.ah agar tidak mengalami kesulitan dalam melaksanakan tugasnya di pengadilan.
2. Agar pemerintah segera menerbitkan regulasi aturan- aturan pelaksanaan UU No. 3 tahun 2006 tentang perubahan atas UU No. 7 tentang peradilan Agama



























DAFTAR PUSTAKA
Al – Qur.an dan terjemahanya
Badroen, Faizal, Suhendra , Arief Mufradeni dan Ahmad D Basori , Etika Bisnis
dalam Islam , cet ke- I Jakarta : Kencana Premada Media Group , 2006
Dewi , Gemala, . Aspek- Aspek Hukum dalam Perbankan dan Perasuransian
Syari’ah di Indonesia ed I, cet 2 , Jakarta : Prenada Media , 2005
. “Wirdayaningsih dan Yeni Salma Barlianti , Hukum
Perikatan Islam di Indonesia edisi pertama, Cetakan ke I,
Jakarta: Prenada Media, 2005
Manan, Abdul “ Penyelesaian Sengketa Ekonomi Syariah ; sebuah kewenangan
Baru Agama (Makalah disampaikan dalam acara sosialisasi UU No. 3
tahun 2006 , Palu 21 s/d 23 Mei 2007 )
Mooduto , HM. Arie Bahan Kuliah Perbankan Syariah , Jakarta ; Program
Magister Ilmu Hukum Pasca Sarjana Universitas Jakarta , 2006/ 2007
Tahir, Fatmawati, Literatur Review of law studies ( penelusuran literature hukum),
Jakarta: Fakultas Hukum Universitas Islam Jakarta, 2007

makalah perekonomian indonesia "perencanaan pembangunan ekonomi"

BAB I

PENDAHULUAN

A. Pendahuluan

Pengertian perencanaan sangat komplek apalagi disertai dengan istilah pembangunan. Sampai sekarang belum ada definisa perencanaan yang memuaskan untuk semua pihak. Karena masing-masing ahli tentang perencanaan medefinisikan menurut pengartiannya masing-masing. Hal ini seperti cerita tentang tiga orang buta yang menyimpulkan bentuk gajah seperti bentuk-bentuk bagian yang baru saja dipegangnya.

Y. Dior dalam bukunya “Tha Planning Prosess” mengatakan bahwa “perencanaan adalah suatu proses penyiapan seperangkat keputusan untuk dilaksanakan pada waktu yang akan dating diarahkan pada pencapaian sasaran tertentu”. Dengan definisi tersebut berarti perencanaan mempunyai unsure sebagai berikut:

1. Berhubungan dengan hari depan;

2. Menyusun seperangkat kegiatan secara sistematis; dan

3. Dirancang untuk mencapai tujuan tertentu.

Perencanaan sering disusun karena situasi tertentu memecahkan suatu masalah tertentu dan pada waktu tertentu pula. Nehru mendefinisikan perencanaan secara sederhana dan pragmatis, yaitu “Planning is the exercise of intellegece to deal with facts and situations as they are and finds way to solve problems”.

Perencanaan merupakan suatu proyeksi yang diharapkan terjadi dalam jangka waktu tertentu dimasa yang akan dating. Oleh karena itu yang membuat rencana perlu menghitung. Membuat asumsi-asumsi agar proyeksi tersebut dapat tercapai, disamping itu juga perlu ada lembaga yang mampu mengkoordinasikan semua kegiatan yang direncanakan tersebut.

Tujuan akhir perencanaan adalah perbaikan kesejahteraan social ekonomi masyarakat. Memang ada beberapa pakar yang menganggap bahwa untuk mencapai tujuan tersebut tidak harus selalu melalui perencanaan. Adam smith. Misalnya memakai semboyan “Laissez Faire, Laissez Passez, et le monde va de lui me me”. (Biarkan melakukan, biarkan lewat dan dunia akan berjalan sendiri). Bahasa terangnya adalah biarkan bebas dan pemerintah jangan ikut campur dalam perekonomian.Adam smith percaya percaya bahwa tanpa campur tangan pemerintah, semua akan mencapai keseimbangan. Adam smith percaya dengan adanya “ invisible hand “ yang akan mengatur sendiri bentuk perekonomian dalam masyarkat.

Teori ini barangkali benar pada zamannya ketika pengaruh dari luar belum banyak yang masuk. Tetapi teori ini tidak akan bisa bertahan, terutama sejak terjadinya “great depression” sekitar tahun 1929 yang mengakibatkan kelesuan perekonomian dan pengangguran melanda dunia. Kemudian muncul J.M Keynes yang menekankan pentingnya campur tangan pemerintah untuk menanggulangi situasi tidak menguntungkan tersebut. Pemerintah harus melakukan investasi (autonomous investment) untuk mengurangi tingkat pengangguran. Sejak waktu ini, terutama setelah berakhirnya perang dunia ke II. Banyak Negara miskin yang percaya bahwa pengaruh pemerintah dalam mengendalian perekonomian adalah penting setelah The General Theory-nya Keynes, banyak pemikiran tentang model-model ekonomi yang menggunakan linier programming analysis input output, game theory, dan sebagainya yang sangat berperan dalam pengembangan teori perencanaan selnjutnya. Perkembangan teori ekonomi makro yang semakin pesat, namun pada waktu itu dunia masih bergelut dengan hancurnya perekonomian akibat perang Dunia II. Keadaan waktu ini terjadi pula di Indonesia waktu itu.

BAB II

PEMBAHASAN

A. Perencanaan Pembangunan di Indonesia

Sejarah perencanaan pembangunan di Indonesia sejak tatun 1945 hingga sampai saat ini mengalami berbagai perkembangan sejalan dengan tingkat stabilitas poliitik dan keamanan. Artinya fakto-faktor social politik ekonomi, perhitungan akurat yang tidak ambisius, pengawasan yang kontinyu, pelaksanaan koordinasi dan sinkronisasi yang baik, serta pembiayaan yang memadai, merupakan hal yang sangat mempengaruhi keberhasilan perencanaan pembangunan suatu usaha.

Beberapa ahli mengakui bahwa menyusun perencanaan adalah suatu pekerjaan besar dan rumit, sedangkan pihak lain menganggap bahwa menyusun hanyalah hisapan jempol saja. Namun demikain banya diantara para ahli yang menganggap bahwa dalam perencanaan, suatu kegiatan akan dilaksanakan lebih baik tanpa perencanaan sama sekali.

B. Plan Mengatur Ekonomi Indonesia (1947)

Penetapan Presiden (Penpres) No. 3/1947, tertanggal 12 April 1947, memutuskan untuk membentuk panitia ahli yang diberi nama Panitia Pemikir Siasat Ekonomi. Panitia ini diketuai oleh Wakil Presiden Mohammad Hatta, dan A.K. Gani, Muhammad Roem. Syafroeddin Prawironegoro masing-masing sebagai wakil ketua. Dilengkapi Sekretariat Panitia Pemikir yang beranggotakan Dr. Soemitro Djojodahikusumo. Dr.Ong Eng Die, Dr. Ir. Samsoedin. Ir. Kasan Moetalib, Dr. Alfian Yoesoef Helmi dan seorang ahli Statistik.

Program yang direncanakan dalam Plan Mengatur Ekonomi Indonesia bertujuan untuk meningkatkan kemakmuran masyarakat yang merata melalui:

1. mengitensifkan usaha produksi;

2. memajukan perdagangan internasional:

3. meningkatkan standar hidup masyrakat:

4. meningkatkan kecerdasan bangsa.

C. Rencana Kasimo (1948-1950)

Pada kabinet Amir Sjarifoeddin, Menteri Muda Kemakmuran, I. J. Kasimo menyusun rencana pertama yang berdimensi waktu, yaitu rencana produksi jangka menengah (3 tahun) dari tahun 1948 – 1950. Konsep perencanaan yang sangat sederhana ini bertujuan untuk menanggulagi keadaan darurat waktu itu, mengingat perang masih terus berkecamuk.

Masalah yang sangat mendesak dan perlu segera ditanggulagi adalah penyediaan pangan. Semua pikiran rencana kasimo ditujukan untuk memecahkan bagai mana Indonesia dapat memecahkan bagainama Indonesia dapat mencapai swasembada pangan. Menurut rencana kasimo, swasembada dilakukan baik melalui usaha intensifikasidengan menggunakan. Bibit unggul, maupun usaha ekstensifikasi di daerah-daerah yang masih banyak terdapat “lahan tidur”. Kasimo, misalnya, menyarankan agar tanah-tanah kosong disumaterah utara (dahulu sumatera timur) ditanami dan menggalakkan indntifakasi di jawa dengan menanam bibit unggul.

D. Rencana Urgensi Perkembangan Industri dan Industri Kecil (1951-1952)

“Rencana urgensi untuk perkembangan industri dan industri kecil” dicanangkan. Oleh Sumotro Djojohadikusumo antara tahun 1951 sampai dengan tahun 1952. Rencana ini didasarkan atas pemikiran bahwa industrialisasi dipandang sebagai bagian integral dari kebijakan umum untuk menambah kekuatan ekonomi nasional yang sehat. Dalam rangkaian rencana ini industri-industri besar diharapkan dapat menciptakan extemmal economies, sehingga dapat menjadi sector strategi bagi perkembangan sector-sektor lainnya.

Konsep dasar rencana ini meliputi kegiatan-kegiatan sebagai berikut:

1. Memperbaiki dan memperkuat balai-balai penelitian dan pendidikan untuk mempercepat perkembangan industri;

2. Menambah pinjaman kepada perusahaan kerajinan rumah tangga dan industri kecil untuk memperkuat kedudukan ekononi mereka dan memungkinkan meningkatkan mekanisme perusahaan;

3. Mendirikan induk-induk perusahaan dengan bantuan langsung dari pemerintah pada pusat-pusat industri di daerah agrarian. Tujuan nya untuk membimbing perusahaan-perusahaan kecil, perseorangan, baik dalam proses produksi maupun pembelian barang mentah, dan penjualan barang jadi;

4. Mendirikan perusahaan-perusahaan industri besar pada sector-sektor yang dipandang penting dengan biaya pemerintah dan swasta.

Hasil-hasil dari “Rencana Urgensi Perkembangan Industri dan Industri Kecil: sebagian masih ada sampai sekarang. Dan bahkan beberapa induk perusahaan masih berfungsi sebagai pendorong perkembangan industri kecil disekitarnya, misalnya:

1. Induk pengerjaan kayu di Klender;

2. Induk pengerjaan kramik di Pleret (Purwakarta), mayong (Kudus) dan Malang;

3. Induk pengerjaan tekstil di Majalaya;

4. Induk pengerjaan besi di Cisaat (Sukabumi). Ciwidey (Bandung); Batur (Cepu), Bareng (Kudus), dan Madiun;

5. Induk penyamakan dan pengerjaan kulit di Pamekasan, Magelang dan Magetan;

6. Induk pengerjaan paying di juwiring (Solo) dan Sidoarjo (Jatim);

7. Induk pengecoran batu di Batur (Cepu), pengecoran kuningan di Pasuruan dan di sukaraja, pengecoran perak di Kotagede (Yogyakarta).

E. Rencana Pembangunan Lima Tahun (1956-1960)

Dengan pertimbangan pengalaman dan kegagalan pelaksanaan perencanaan dimasa sebelumnya, maka kebutuhan badan khusus yang berkewajiban menyusun perencanaan social ekonnomi di Indonesia. Dengan peraturan pemerintah no 2 tahun 1952 dibentuk Dewan Perancang Negara. Dalam melaksanakan tugas., Biro Perancang Neraga dalam periodde Perdana Menteri Juanda berhasil mencanangkan dan menyusun rencana pembangunan jangka menengah pertama yang disebut rencana pemangunan 5 tahun (RPLT) 1956-1960.

Walaupun rancana Undang-Undang RPLT (1956-1960) disetujui DPR pada tanggal 1 Nopember 1958, namun dalam perjalanannya mengalami berbagai perubahan. Perubahan-perubahan tersebut berkisar pada sumber-sumber pembiayaan. Situasi selama periode ini memang masih kurang stabil. Disebabkan beberapa hal:

1. Sengketa Irian Barat yang memerlukan biaya tidak sedikit;

2. Perkiraan biaya RPLT yang didasarkan tahun-tahun sebelumnya dianggap “normal” akibat Korean Boom ternyata meleset,

3. Data statistic yang kurang akurat,

4. Jangka wakktu rancana yang cukup panjang (5 tahun) mengakibatkan perkiraan-perkiraan sering salah atau menyimpang dari rencana.

F. garis-garis Besar Pola Pembangunan Nasional Semesta Berencana Tahapan Pertama (1961-1969)

1. Dewan perancang Nasional (Depernas)

Dari pengalaman pemerintahan sebelumnya, semakin disadari perlunya diadakan semacam lembaga yang mengatur perencanaan pembangunan untuk kepentingan masa depan bangsa. Dengan Undang-undang no 80 tahun 1958 dibentuklah Dewan Perancang Nasional (Depernas) yang pelaksanaannya ditetapkan oleh peraturann pemerintah (PP) no 1 tahun 1959.

2. Rencana pembangunan semesta berencana tahap pertama (1961-1969)

Pembangunan semesta barencana adalah rencana jangka menengah terpanjang dalam sejarah perencanaaan pembangunan di Indonesia. Tujuan pembangunan semesta berencana adalah untuk menciptakan masyarakat Indonesia yang adil dan makmur berdasarkan pancasila (waktu itu disebut masyarakat sosialis ala Indonesia). Karena itu sebagai penganti dewan perancang nasional dibentuk Badan Perencanaan Nasional (Bappenas) yang kita kenal sampai selarang, melalui penetapan pemerintah RI nomor 12 tahun 1963.

G. Pembangunan Jangka Panjang Tahap Pertama (PJP I) dan Kedua (PJP II)

Berbagai kegagalan dalam perencanaan serta kebijakan-kebijakan pembangunan, mengakibatkan hancurnya perekonomian Indonesia, dan menjadi penyebab turun nya pemerintah Orde Lama, dan digantikan pemerintahan Orde Baru. Tahap pertama yang dilakukan oleh pemerintah Orde Baru adalah usaha rehabilitasi dan stabilitasi Perekonomian Indonesia, dengan mengambil berbagai tindakan antara lain: penyedaerhanaan dan penyempurnaan aparatur pemerintah; meningkatkan penerimaan pajak; penghematan pengeluaran pemerintah; penyehatan perkreditan; penangguhan utang-utang luar negeri; mengusahakan kredit-kredit luar negeri; mengusahakan devisa pemerintah secara rasional; meningkatkan ekspor; memperbaiki system impor dan meningkatkan penerimaan Negara dari bea masuk impor; membenahi bidang harga; tariff dan subsidi di badang moneter.

Usaha-usaha rehabilitasi dan stbilitasi ekonomi (1961-1968) menampakkan hasil terutama dalam pengendalian laju inflasi. Situasi yang kondusif ini mendorong dirintisnya perencanaan-perencanaan koordinasi dan teratur. Sejak itu dimulai Penyusunan Repelita 1 (1969-1970-1974/1975 sampai dengan Repelita V (1989/90-1994-1995), yang disebut juga sebagai Pembangunan Jangka Panjang Tahap Pertama (PJP I), dan Repelita VI (1994/95-1999/2000) sampai dengan Repelita X (2019/20-2023/24) yang disebut pembangunan jangka kedua (PJP II).

Faktor-faktor yang memungkinkan keberhasilan perencanaan pada masa Orde Baru ini adalah:

1. Kestabilan politik dalam negeri yang mendukung;

2. Kestabilan keamanan;

3. Perencanaan disusun oleh orang-orang yang ahli dibidangnya;

4. Perencanaan yang realistis, yang disesuaikan dengan kemampuan sumber daya dan dana;

5. Koordinasi yang baik antara perencanaan pusat dan daerah;

6. Perencanaan disusun tidak hanya dari atas ke bawah (top down). Tetapi dari bawah ke atas (bottom up);

7. Perencanaan diikuti dengan system pemantauan dan pengawasan yang terus-menerus;

8. Perencanaaan yang transfaran dan dapat di terima oleh masyarakat.

H. Program Perencanaan Nasional (PROPENAS)

Krisis ekonomi dan moneter, serta kegiatan ekonomi yang dipelopori Mahasiswa, ditandai dengan tumbangnya rezim Orde baru yang otoriter, mendorong terjadinya kemajuan dibidang politik, penegakan kedaulatan rakyat, peningkatan peran masyarakat dengan mengurangi peran pemerintah dalam kehidupan politik, dengan terselenggaranya Sidang Istimewa MPR 1998; Penyelenggaraan pemilu tahun 1999 dengan banyak partai. Dan Sidang Umum MPR 1999 yang menyusun GBHN 1999-2004, serta melahirkan pemerintahan baru di bawah Presiden Abdurrahman Wahid.

Pemerintahan baru ini menyusun Program Pembangunan Nasional (PROPENAS) berdasarkan GBHN tersebut 12 Misi, dan 3 diantaranya prioritas dibidang ekonomi. Yaitu:

1. Pemberdayaan masyarakat dan seluruh kekuatan ekonomi nasional terutama bagi pengusaha mikro, kecil, menengah dan koperasi, dengan mengembangkan system ekonomi kerakyatan yang bertumpu pada mekanisme pasar yang berkeadilan, berbasis sumber daya alam dan sumber manusia yang produktif, mmandiri, maju, berdaya pesaing, berwawasan lingkungan dan berkelanjutan;

2. Perwujudan ekonomi daerah dalam rangka pengembangan daerah dan pemerataan pertumbuhan dalam wadah persatuan RI;

3. Perwujutan kesejahteraan rakyat ditandai oleh meningkatnya kualitas kehidupan yang layak dan bermartabat serta memberi perhatian utama pada tercukupinya kebutuhan dasar, yaitu pangan, sandang, papan, kesehatan, pendidikan dan lapangan kerja.

BAB III

PENUTUP

Pelajaran penting pada masa krisis ekonomi adalah pentingnya mengintregasikan nilai keadilan sebagai bagian yang tidak terpisahkan dari cita-cita untuk meningkatkan kesejahteraan masyarakat. Dengan demikian pertumbuhan ekonomi yang hendak dicapai harus dapat dinikmati oleh masyarakat luas secara berkeadilan. Oleh karena itu, pada masa reformaasi ini harus bersungguh-sungguh dalam merubah paradigma pembnagunan ekonomi yang bertumpu pada pemerataan. Hal ini sejalan dengan GBHN 1999-2004 yang telah mengamanatkan bahwa perekonomian dibangun berlandaskan system ekonomi kerakyatan, dimana kekuatan ekonomi rakyat dikembangkan menjadi tulang punggung pembanguna ekonomi nasional.

DAFTAR PUSTAKA

Abimanyu, Anggito, 2000, Ekonomi Indonesia Baru: Kajian dan Alteernatif solusi menuju pemulihan, Jakarta: Elex Media Komputindo.

Anoraga, Pandji, 1994, BUMN, Swasta dan Koperasi : Tiga Pelaku Ekonomi, Jakarta: Pustaka Jaya

Badan Pusat Statistik (2002), Buletin Statistik Indonesia “ Indikator Ekonomi”, Edisi juli 2002

Privacy Policy

Privacy Policy for macro--economic.blogspot.com/

If you require any more information or have any questions about our privacy policy, please feel free to contact us by email at mayumi2405@gmail.com.

At macro--economic.blogspot.com/, the privacy of our visitors is of extreme importance to us. This privacy policy document outlines the types of personal information is received and collected by macro--economic.blogspot.com/ and how it is used.

Log Files
Like many other Web sites, macro--economic.blogspot.com/ makes use of log files. The information inside the log files includes internet protocol ( IP ) addresses, type of browser, Internet Service Provider ( ISP ), date/time stamp, referring/exit pages, and number of clicks to analyze trends, administer the site, track user’s movement around the site, and gather demographic information. IP addresses, and other such information are not linked to any information that is personally identifiable.

Cookies and Web Beacons
macro--economic.blogspot.com/ does use cookies to store information about visitors preferences, record user-specific information on which pages the user access or visit, customize Web page content based on visitors browser type or other information that the visitor sends via their browser.

DoubleClick DART Cookie
.:: Google, as a third party vendor, uses cookies to serve ads on macro--economic.blogspot.com/.
.:: Google's use of the DART cookie enables it to serve ads to users based on their visit to macro--economic.blogspot.com/ and other sites on the Internet.
.:: Users may opt out of the use of the DART cookie by visiting the Google ad and content network privacy policy at the following URL - http://www.google.com/privacy_ads.html

Some of our advertising partners may use cookies and web beacons on our site. Our advertising partners include ....
Google Adsense


These third-party ad servers or ad networks use technology to the advertisements and links that appear on macro--economic.blogspot.com/ send directly to your browsers. They automatically receive your IP address when this occurs. Other technologies ( such as cookies, JavaScript, or Web Beacons ) may also be used by the third-party ad networks to measure the effectiveness of their advertisements and / or to personalize the advertising content that you see.

macro--economic.blogspot.com/ has no access to or control over these cookies that are used by third-party advertisers.

You should consult the respective privacy policies of these third-party ad servers for more detailed information on their practices as well as for instructions about how to opt-out of certain practices. macro--economic.blogspot.com/'s privacy policy does not apply to, and we cannot control the activities of, such other advertisers or web sites.

If you wish to disable cookies, you may do so through your individual browser options. More detailed information about cookie management with specific web browsers can be found at the browsers' respective websites.

Equilbrium in the Goods Market and Money Market

IS - LM macroeconomic model helps us to develop a sound understanding of how equilbrium is approached in our economy. Here we will understand how equilbrium is acheived in a closed economy.

A macroeconomic model that graphically represents two intersecting curves, called the IS and LM curves. The investment/saving (IS) curve is a variation of the income-expenditure model incorporating market interest rates (demand for this model), while the liquidity preference/money supply equilibrium (LM) curve represents the amount of money available for investing (supply for this model).

The interest rate and the level of output are determined by the interaction of money (LM) and goods (IS) markets. But we should remember that we have adopted few assumptions while developing IS - LM model.

Key Assumptions:

• 
  
  Price level is assumed to be constant
• 
  
  Firms are willing to supply whatever amount of output is demanded at that price level.
• 
  
  We assumed short rum aggregate supply curve to be flat

We will explain the mathematics behind the model in the subsequent blog.

Monthly GDP Estimates: Stabilization and Upswing...for Now

Here are the latest reads on monthly GDP:

Figure 1: Real GDP in billions Ch.2005$, SAAR (blue bars), Macroeconomic Advisers 8/17 release (green), and e-forecasting 8/19 release (red). NBER defined recession dates shaded gray, assuming end occurs at 2009M06. Source: BEA 2009Q2 advance release, Macroeconomic Advisers, e-forecasting, NBER.

Macroeconomic Advisers writes:

... The level of monthly GDP in June was 0.2% below the second-quarter average at an annual rate. Average monthly increases of 0.4% per month would support our latest tracking forecast of a 2.8% increase in GDP in the third quarter.

e-forecasting writes:

Following a decline of 3.2 percent in June, the real-time monthly GDP, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates in chained 2005 prices, increased 6.3 percent in July to $12,938.4 billion.

Underground threats to the global economy

Print this article

For many months we have argued that the global economy is, despite all the hoopla, actually following a pretty normal course. Yes there are exceptions. The massive fiscal and trade deficits currently experienced by the United States are not normal and represent the tips of a very substantial economic volcano. But investors and financial market operators have grown used to this landscape of peaks and valleys and have come to accept their existence in much the same way that a multi-generational farmer clings to the slopes of, Philippine death trap, Mount Pinatubo. The farmer ekes out a living from the fertile soil aware, at the same time, that at some indeterminate point in the future this livelihood is bound to be swept away in a searing pyroclastic embrace. But for now investment vulcanologists can ease back in their deck chairs. The seismograph chatters quietly in the background, nothing untoward, the economic world is at peace and yet……

Some people are just never happy! In this world of small things monitored so minutely, this world in which the slightest rustle in the hedgerow calls forth a flock of squawking, excitable, pundits babbling hyperbole like a mountain torrent, it can be quite hard properly to discern the true meaning of the almost imperceptible nudges on that same seismograph. They are, however, important and must be recognised as such if this environment in which we inhabit is to be given meaning and context provided for the future.

Consensus: the global economy is slowing

By massive common consensus the global economy is slowing (see chart below). It has taken time for the brakes to start to work, particularly so as economic policy (both fiscal and monetary) has been tightened across the US, eurozone, Japan, China, India, Australia not to mention the UK for a while now.

In part because of and in part exacerbated by, a significant, yet glacial-paced, shift in expenditure patterns this slowdown is causing changes of tectonic proportions beneath the surface, the ripples from which are, however, beginning to show up in market action. Significantly, since the early 1980’s the G7 household sector financial balance has been on a continuous slide from a healthy 6% of global GDP crossing zero in 2001, to a very unhealthy -2% of GDP today. We expect that concerted fiscal and monetary policy tightening will cause this long-term slither to go into reverse, producing a significant squeeze on future consumption patterns.

Over the same period the G7 corporate sector financial balance has been on a shallow upward trend (with the notable exception of the late 1990’s bubble years!) from -2% GDP in 1982 to +0.5% of global GDP in late 2006. There have been a number of good reasons why companies should have wished to have opted for greater financial stability, particularly so in the wake of the creative accounting fuelled late ‘80’s boom and the emergence of pension fund “back holes”. Interestingly perhaps, we see a strong correlation between the steady improvement in company accounting and balance sheet rebuild, the steady demise of volatility and investors’ equally extraordinary creeping acceptance of risk to the point where, in the credit markets, spreads between junk and high grade bond yields have all but disappeared.

The above illustrates something interesting going on too. We have periodically wondered for just how long could companies remain in such control of their wage bills that profit margins can continue to hit new peaks. Perhaps this chart tells us we should start to worry. It reveals that, after several years of extraordinary weakness (the deflation threat years of 2003-2004) in which corporates really held the whip hand in negotiations with employees, the latter have shown signs of fighting back. To some extent this is a reflection of a rising (and pernicious) inflation hedge to wage bargaining but whatever the underlying cause the risk either to future inflation (and monetary policy) or to the sustainability of prevailing profit margins is clear.

Meanwhile back on the markets

The response to the common acceptance that the global economy is following a normal cycle has been to consign the word “risk” to the dustbin of history. The bond yield curve, despite its clear inversion (and thus negative message regarding the economic landscape of the future) is ignored. Relatively low longer dated bond yields have resulted in a historically high equity risk premium (cash today is worth more than cash in the future) and ultra low levels of implied volatility.

The following highly stylised graphic illustrates these financial market inconsistencies and serves as an important frame of reference for what we have already begun to see happening over Q4 2006 and which could, despite the benign macro backdrop, still make for choppy conditions in the equity market.

The diagram, which we reproduce with the kind permission of UBS Warburg attempts to explain a world of macro economic growth, buoyant equity markets and the departure of “risk” from the investor lexicon. The diagram shows that a wide range of hitherto diverse external stimuli have combined, over the past decade, to produce the unusual combination of strong economic growth, wafer thin (skinny) premiums in the credit market, ultra-low volatility and an unusually high equity risk premium (ERP).

The diagram does not explain what might happen in the future but it seems pretty clear to us that any significant change in the external stimuli could produce a marked change in the uneasy equity market status quo. Perhaps the most interesting change is already underway… re-leveraging.

At it’s full year results presentation on Thursday 1st Feb, AstraZeneca lit a fire under its own share price and the Pharmaceutical sector generally by suggesting that the global sector giants should seriously consider gearing up. In fact the process of corporate re-leverage has been going on for a good six months already. The corporate sector is following where the private equity sector has already blazed a trail and already some commentators, such as Standard & Poor’s, identify the growth of leveraged buy-outs as sowing the seed of serious risk for the future.

The return of risk will inevitably give rise to greater volatility, an event which, in our view, should be welcomed by investors as antidote to the duration extension and multiple expansion of the past six months.

Why some countires are so rich while others are mired in poverty??

Why some countires are so rich while others are mired in poverty??

Before starting to explain the phenomenon as to why their a a difference in status of countries. Firstly we need to understand in what terms we are saying that a country is rich and other is poor. Is it standard of living, employment, aggregate income of a country or inflation and several other economic indicators.

To clear the point it is standard of living of people of country which is stated in terms of real GDP per capita i.e. on an average income of a person in a country.

Before going into details, we need to understand a comprehensive model named as Solow Growth Model named after the famous economist Robert Solow. We need to clearly understand the assumptions prior to diving into the mode.

Assumptions

• Production function exhibits Diminishing Marginal return to Capital
• We assume 2 inputs in the production function - Capital and Labor
• Two other important inputs are Natural Resources and Human capitsl (but at this point of time we will not consider these two inputs)
• We will assume that growth in "Technology" is not there.

Production function : Y = A F(K,L)

Assuming y = Y/L and k = K/L, we can rewrite the equation as y = f (k) as we are interested in analyzing output per labor.

Also as we know that Saving = Investment = s f (k) where s = saving rate

The change in capital stock per worker :

dk = Investment (sf(k)) - depreciation in capital (d*k) - rate of increase in population growth (n) * k

Increase in population requires additional capital
We need to maintain the condition on existing machines/ capital stock
Investment on capital will help in increasing capital stock

At steady state dk = 0
hence, sf (k) = ( n + d ) k

Key findings :

1. At steady state output / worker and capital / worker is constant i.e. growth is zero.

2. You can see clearly from the graph that if saving rate is high : Steady state capital / worker and output / worker will be high.

3. While if rate of depreciation of capital or population growth (n) is high standard of living will be low.

4. Steady state growth in total output of a country is n i.e. population growth

So countries with high population growth and low saving rate are poorer.

###### Keep in mind that we excluded the effect of technological growth in this model. ######

Weblink : Market Research Data Analytics Solutions Provider Bangalore

First Draft of August 30 Principles of Economics Lecture: Introduction to Macroeconomics

1.0. What We Hope You Will Learn

---

1.1. Introduction to Macroeconomics

Half of the first-year economics college curriculum is microeconomics--the study of individual workers, investors, firms, markets, and industries in our economy. Half of the first-year economics curriculum is macroeconomics--the study of issues that cannot be analyzed properly without considering the economy as a whole. It is conventional to start with the micro half. We are going to start with the macro half--given the big recession outside and the high level of unemployment in this country and the world, I think I have a better chance of grabbing and keeping your attention if I start this course with macro rather than with micro.

The cost will be a certain amount of construction of an intellectual edifice in midair--but we will fill in the foundations later on.

Much of the time economics presumes that the market system as a whole is functioning reasonably well. In its background it presumes that almost all sellers find willing buyers, and vice versa. It presumes that, as a rule, contracts made will be fulfilled. It presumes that, as a rule, promises—whether made by governments, financiers, employers, workers, buyers, or sellers—will be kept.

But what if this overriding assumption is wrong? What if the web of connected markets does not work smoothly? And when does the web of connected markets not work smoothly? And why might the web of connected markets not work smoothly?

That is what macroeconomics is for. And that is where we are going to start.

1.1.1 The Parts of Macroeconomics

The domain of macroeconomics itself has four topics. Each of them deals with one of four major ways in which the web of markets can fail to work well. We are going to survey all four of those parts in the first half of this course.

The first part--and the one of most interest right now, given what is going on outside--is depression economics. It examines what happens when sellers cannot, generally and on average, find willing buyers at more-or-less the normal prices. The answer is not pretty. It is called recession or depression. This topic should grab you. We entered the deepest economic recession since the Great Depression back in 2007.

In December 2006 63.4% of American adults of working age had jobs. By December 2009 only 58.2% had jobs. Over those three years the unemployment rate jumped from 4.4% to 10.0%. Total production in the economy had stood at a level of $13.06 trillion per year at the end of 2006 (measured in the prices as they stood in 2005). It had then been growing at an average rate of a hair above 3% per year. Thus total production should have stood at $14.3 trillion per year at the end of 2009. It did not: it was $13.1 trillion per year instead—fully 8.5% lower than what three years before we had all expected the level of production to be. More than 8% of the useful goods and services that we ought to have been making at the end of 2009 were simply not there. They had vanished completely.

This is what happens when the expectation of sellers that they can, generally and on average, find willing buyers at more-or-less the prices that they had expected, goes wrong. It is what happens when, in general and economy-wide, there is excess supply. And it is what happens when—as invariably happens in conditions of macroeconomic excess supply— the assumption that private financiers and entrepreneurs will generally fulfill their contracts and keep their promises goes wrong as well.

The second part is inflation economics: what happens when buyers cannot find willing sellers at the prices they expected. The answer is that you get situations of moderate inflation. The economy sees full or near-full employment as firms find that they can sell as much as they can produce at prices higher than they expect. But it also sees unsettling and disturbing upward wage-price spirals as workers and managers and consumers change their expectations in order to expect faster general price rises—more inflation—than they had expected before.

And then they find that prices are rising even faster than their new expectations had led them to believe. And the process accelerates and spirals upward.

If the only consequence of a situation of inflation economics were that, year after year, purchasers going to market found that prices were two, three, four, or five percent or so higher than they had been last year, few would complain. An economy in which it is easy for workers to find or change jobs and it is easy for managers to sell what their factories have produced is a comfortable place to be.

The problem arises when managers, workers, and consumers begin to reflect on the process of moderate inflation. If prices have been rising at five percent per year for several years, shouldn’t you expect that to continue, and build that into your expectations? And so buyers pay even more, and prices rise by more than they had been expecting them to. And the entire mechanism breaks down, as prices rise more than people had been expecting even though people had been expecting them to rise. The situation can end in a reversal of course as the situation is brought to a close via a dose of depression economics. Or the situation can end in a breakdown of trust in the government and the monetary system.

The consequences of such breakdowns are the third part of the domain of macroeconomics, which deals with the case in which the macroeconomic market failure is one of promise-keeping on the part of the government. As the late Milton Friedman put it, for the government to spend is for the government to tax. Whenever the government spends, it is also promising explicitly or implicitly to tax somebody, either in the present or the future, either directly or indirectly, to pay for that purchase.

The government can tax now to pay for spending later—and so run a budget surplus. The government can spend now and promise to tax later—and so run a budget deficit and increase the national debt. But what happens when the government runs up too great a debt and the political system tries to get the government to break its promise to tax? How to guard against such attempted promise-breaking by the government, and what happens when the government attempts such promise-breaking occurs is deficit economics. And once again it is not pretty: capital flight, disinvestment, stagflation, currency collapse, and hyperinflation.

The fourth part does not quite fit easily with the other three. It is growth economics, the study of how economies grow--or don't grow--in the longer run: how material living standards and labor productivity levels advance or fail to do so.

Growth economics fits uneasily with the other components of macroeconomics for three reasons: First of all, it is concerned with long-run trends across decades or generations. The other three are short run. They are concerned with whether the government is paying its debts or (implicitly or explicitly) defaulting on them, whether workers expecting to find jobs can do so or are disappointed, whether purchasers expecting to buy goods at yesterday's prices can do so or are disappointed, and whether any or all of these are happening right now/ Second, growth economics is concerned with situations in which expectations are generally satisfied while the others are concerned with situations in which expectations are disappointed. Third, growth economics is concerned with situations in which the economy has recently (where "recently" means something like "the past 200 years") done relatively well, while the other three are concerned with situations in which things are or are near the point of going badly.

Nevertheless, growth economics is similar to the other three in one important respect. It does not look at an individual market or firm or household or industry. Rather, it loos at the economy as a whole. And it looks at a set of circumstances in which market failures are everywhere, and of great importance.

For this reason Greg Mankiw added it to the "macroeconomics" half of the syllabus in the late 1980s, and it has stuck here ever since.

1.1.2. Focusing the Economy as a Whole

Microeconomics analyzes what goes right and wrong at the level of the individual firm, the individual household, the individual industry, or the individual market, macroeconomics shifts the focus to the economy as a whole and analyzes what goes right and wrong in the aggregate--from a macro perspective, one might say. Hence its name.

The difference in perspective from micro to macro has four sets of consequences that you should note. First, it has consequences for what things are held constant in the analysis. Second, it has consequences for how shifts in the economy can feedback upon and amplify each other. Third, it is far, far easier in macro to wind up in situations in which there are a number of possible ways in which supply could equal demand—and in which the principle that the economy comes to rest where supply equals demand is not of much help. Fourth and last, the expectations of the people living in the economy are much more important pieces of analysis in macro than in micro.

1.1.3. The Importance of Expectations in Macroeconomics

The last of these is worth a little more explanation. In microeconomic each little market equilibrium was self-contained: there were suppliers and demanders, they had goods to sell and needs to buy, and so all the relevant information for what would happen in the market was right there in front of us. In macroeconomics people are making decisions and plans which depend on what the future is going to be like—and what the future will be like depends on what decisions and plans are made today, and what their consequences are. Thus the questions of how people form their expectations of the future, and how changes in what happens today affect expectations of the future, are absolutely crucial: different ways of forming expectations lead to very different market outcomes, as we will see.

---

1.2. The Four Parts of Macroeconomics

1.2.1. Depression Economics

In December 2006 63.4% of American adults of working age had jobs. By December 2009 only 58.2% had jobs. Over those same three years the unemployment rate--which looks at a narrower group, not all American adults but only those who say that they are actively looking for work and would take a job if offered one--jumped from 4.4% to 10.0%. Total production in the economy stood at a level of $13.06 trillion per each year at the end of 2006 (measured in the prices as they stood in 2005). It was then growing at an average rate of a hair above 3% per year. But as of the end of 2009 productino stood not at $14.3 trillion per year but at $13.1 trillion per year. It was fully 8.5% lower than what three years before we had all expected the level of production to be. 8% of the flow of production of useful goods and services that we ought to have been producing and could have been producing at the end of 2009 was gone: vanished completely into thin air.

Why this shift, this "Great Recession" in the pace of the flow of production and demand and and the level of employment?

It is not because of any large negative shock to our knowledge about technologies and organizations. It is not because we have forgotten how to make things or organize ourselves. It is not because of any sudden shortage or exhaustion of natural resources. It is not because of any sudden destruction of national capital stock--of the assembly of produced means of production, of machines and structures that assist and amplify our powers to make and do things.

It is not because American workers have lost their taste for labor. It is not that workers today prefer to take a great vacation right now. Those who have lost their jobs and have not found new ones in this "Great Recession" are for the most part not happy people right now.

And it is not because a sudden wave of government regulation or sudden increases in tax rates have disrupted the market economy's productive division of labor--although you can find people who will claim each of these things is true, and do so with straight faces.

All of these factors that might under some conditions explain some of a fall in the pace of production and sales, in the level of employment, and in the fraction of the productive capacity of factories that is being used. But not this time.

Instead, the "Great Recession" of the late 2000s was yet another occurrence of a disease that has periodically but irregularly struck industrial market economies since at least 1825: the demand-driven industrial business cycle. Extraordinarily large numbers of people are unemployed in 2009-2010 because aggregate demand is low. There is no demand for the things they might or that they used to make and do. The expectation of sellers that they can, generally and on average, find willing buyers at more-or-less the prices that they had expected, has gone wrong. Thus there is, in general and economy-wide, excess supply of pretty much everything. And because there is macroeconomic excess supply, the assumption that private financiers and entrepreneurs will generally fulfill their contracts and keep their promises has gone wrong as well.

In a recession--we generally do not use the word "depression" for anything after World War II, largely because the word sounds too scary--sellers all across the economy find that buyers do not show up in the numbers they had been expecting, and so inventories of unsold goods pile up on the shelves. This wave of extra unexpected inventories works it's way back through the production chain, and producers respond as they usually do to deficient demand. They lay off workers, cut back production, and cut prices.

Normally when there is deficient demand for some commodity, and hence a glut of it on the market, there is excess demand for and hence a shortage of another one. Hence one firm or industry will be hiring workers, increasing production, and raising prices when another is firing, cutting, and lowering.

Not this time.

A recession is a general glut: a shortage of aggregate demand and not of demand for only one or only a few commodities. And in a recession the things that producers do to handle a single-commodity glut--firing, cutting back, and lowering--do not help repair the situation but instead work to make matters worse.

One (partial) reason there is low aggregate demand is that so many people are unemployed--and so have reduced incomes, and so can spend less. The feedback loop from lessened aggregate demand to reduced employment to reduced incomes to even further reduced aggregate demand is a vicious circle that makes recessions and depressions worse than they would otherwise be.

But where does the initial deficiency of aggregate demand--the one that caused the first piling-up of inventories unsold on store shelves--come from? You cannot have a downward vicious spiral without an initial push. The answer is that the initial push can come from a number of places, and take a number of forms, but that once the recession begins the process by which deficient aggregate demand is generated and propagates itself is very similar. Investigating that process or propagation and classifying the shocks that produce economic downturns is the subject matter of depression economics.

1.2.2. Inflation Economics

The second part, the subject following depression economics, is inflation economics. Inflation economics deals with times when the economy suffers from the reverse of the problems of depression economics: when there is not a shortage but instead a surplus of overall aggregate demand. It studies what happens when it is not true that buyers generally find willing sellers at the prices that they expected. The answer is that you get situations of inflation. Such are characterized by full or near-full employment, as firms find that they can sell as much as they can produce at prices higher than they expect. And they are times of climbing wage-price spirals, as workers and managers and consumers change their expectations in order to expect faster general price rises—more inflation—than they had expected before.

And then they find that prices are rising even faster than their new expectations had led them to believe.

If the only consequence of a small excess of aggregate demand over aggregate supply were that, year after year, purchasers going to market found that prices were two, three, four, or five percent or so higher than they had been last year, few would complain. An economy in which it is easy for workers to find or change jobs and it is easy for managers to sell what their factories have produced is a very comfortable place to be.

The big problem arises when managers, workers, and consumers begin to reflect on the process of moderate inflation—of ever rising prices. If prices have been rising at five percent per year for several years, shouldn’t you expect that to continue, and build that into your expectations? And then, when people go to market, they find that as long as their is excess aggregate demand their aren’t enough goods on the shelves to satisfy demand at expected prices, which are (say) five percent or whatever above what they were last year.

And so buyers pay more, and prices rise by more than they had been expecting them to.

And then the entire mechanism breaks down. Prices rise more than people had been expecting, even though people had been expecting them to rise. The situation can end in a reversal of course as excess supply is replaced by excess demand and recession, with a larger previous excess of aggregate demand producing a larger subsequent recession. Or the situation can end in a breakdown of trust in the government and the monetary system.

1.2.3. Deficit Economics

The consequences of such breakdowns in trust--caused by times of high inflation as well as other factors--are the third part of the domain of macroeconomics. It deals with the case in which the macroeconomic market failure is one of promise-keeping on the part of the government. As the late economist Milton Friedman put it, for the government to spend is for the government to tax. Whenever the government spends money to purchase something, it is also promising explicitly or implicitly to tax somebody, either in the present or the future, either directly or indirectly, to pay for that purchase.

The government can tax now to pay for spending later—and so run a budget surplus. The government can spend now and promise to tax later—and so run a budget deficit and increase the national debt. But what happens when the government runs up too great a debt and the political system tries to get the government to break its promise to tax, or even when investors and savers and managers and workers and spenders fear that the government will explicitly or implicitly try to break its promises? How to guard against such attempted promise-breaking by the government and what happens when attempted promise-breaking occurs is deficit economics. And once again it is not pretty: capital flight, disinvestment, stagflation, currency collapse, and hyperinflation.

1.2.4. Growth Economics

The fourth part of the domain does not quite fit easily with the other three. It is growth economics, the study of how economies grow--or don't grow--in the longer run: how material living standards and labor productivity levels advance or fail to do so.

Growth economics fits uneasily with the other components of macroeconomics for three reasons: first of all, it is concerned with long-run trends across decades or generations while they are short run, concerned with whether the government is paying its debts or (implicitly or explicitly) defaulting on them, whether workers expecting to find jobs can do so or are disappointed, whether purchasers expecting to buy goods at yesterday's prices can do so or are disappointed, and whether any or all of these are happening right now; second, it is concerned with situations in which expectations are generally satisfied while the others are concerned with situations in which expectations are disappointed; and, third, it is concerned with situations in which the economy has recently (where "recently" means something like "the past 200 years") done relatively well, while the other three are concerned with situations in which things are or are near the point of going badly.

Nevertheless, growth economics is similar to the other three in that it looks not at an individual market or firm or household or industry but rather at the economy as a whole. For this reason Greg Mankiw added it to the "macroeconomics" half of the syllabus in the late 1980s, and it has stuck here ever since.

1.2.5. The Relative Importance of These Four Parts

At the moment of this writing, with the U.S. unemployment rate at 9.5%, everybody’s focus is on depression economics. The other three parts of macroeconomics—inflation economics, government-debt economics, and long-term growth economics—are definitely in the back of people’s minds. But this will not always be the case. By the time you are reading this textbook, it may well be the case that one of the other three parts has come to the forefront of the news and of the policy debate.

So, at least, the pattern has been for the entire past century. The World War I era focused on inflation, the 1920s focused on growth, and the Great Depression of the 1930s saw the true birth of depression economics. But by the 1940s the pressures of World War II brought inflation to the forefront, followed by a concern about growth in the 1950s and 1960s, about inflation in the 1970s, and about depression economics again in the early 1980s. The late 1980s and early 1990s saw focus on government debt, followed by a late 1990s and early 2000s focused, again, more on economic growth than on any of the other three aspects before the financial crisis of 2007 brought about the latest turn of the wheel.

So take from this section of the course what is most useful to you. Some of it will be immediately useful and enormously relevant. Some of it will appear to be fusty and outdated. Some of it will appear to come from the outfield. But if history teaches us anything, it is that things change—and odds are that at some point in your life you will find each of the four components of macroeconomics very important for the economy in which you will then be living at that moment.

---

1.3. Measuring the Macroeconomy

But what do we mean by the "macroeconomy," anyway?

1.3.1. The Flow of Production and Sales

The U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis has estimated that in the third quarter of 2007--that is, adding up the months of July, August, and September--the United States economy produced goods and services at a rate of $14,179.9 billion worth a year.

That doesn't mean that in July, August, and September we produced $14 trillion plus worth of stuff: we only produced a quarter of that: $3,545.0 billion. What the Bureau of Economic Analysis said was that, if we were to maintain that quarter of the year's pace of production for an entire year, then in that year we would have made $14 trillion plus.

Confused? Don’t blame yourself. It is confusing.

The BEA’s estimates of the current-dollar value of production—its estimates of nominal Gross Domestic Product—are a flow, not a stock. They are measured in terms of how many dollars worth of stuff are made in a given unit of time. It is like an automobile's speed: if you drive 60 miles an hour for fifteen minutes—a quarter of an hour—you don't go 60 miles but instead 15. If you produce $3,545.0 billion worth of stuff in three months you are making things and providing services at a rate of $14,179.9 billion per year.

Not all but almost all of the value of the stuff made in the fourth quarter of 2007 was sold. Nominal gross final sales of domestic product in that quarter proceeded at a rate of $14,148.8 billion per year. The difference between $14,179.9 and $14,148.8—$31.0 billion—is inventory accumulation: the difference between production and sales piles up as “inventories” of goods that firms own but that they want to sell. The inventories of goods that had been produced but had not been sold were greater at the end of September than they had been at the start of July.

How much greater?

If you say $31.0 billion, you are wrong: inventories were growing--inventory investment was proceeding—in the third quarter at a rate of +$31.0 billion per year. It proceeded at this pace for three months: a quarter of a year. Increasing business inventories at a pace of +31.0 billion per year for a quarter of a year means that at the end of September the Bureau of Economic Analysis's estimate was that inventories were $31.0 billion per year x 1/4 year = $7.8 billion higher than they had been at the start of July.

Confused? You should be...

The smartest people in the world at this get confused—one example is Princeton Professor and former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Alan Blinder in the White House, back when he was a member of President Clinton's Council of Economic Advisers: he divided rather than multiplying by four in his head and thus got an answer that was off by a factor of 16, and none of the young hotshots sitting in the room felt sure enough to try to correct him on the spot.

Thus there are three pieces of advice:

1. Don't try to do this stuff in your head—it is just too hard.
2. Remember what your high-school physics teacher said: no naked numbers. Every number that you write down has to come with its units attached to it. If you keep units attached to numbers then it is harder to divide when you should multiply.
3. Do every problem twice, at least.

Remember: just as rate x time = distance, and just as distance/rate = time and distance/time = rate, so flow x time = change in stock and change in stock/time = flow.

One more wrinkle. Does the $14,148.8 billion per year of nominal gross final sales of domestic product in the third quarter of 2007 mean that Americans and others resident in the United States were then buying stuff at a rate of $14,148.8 billion a year? No.

Total nominal gross final sales to American residents were at a pace of $14,847.2 billion per year in that quarter.

Where does this difference come from? The difference is net imports: we bought more currently-produced goods and services from foreigners than we sold to them. That is our trade deficit. In the fourth quarter of 2007 American businesses sold good and services abroad at a pace of $1,685.2 billion per year, while American residents bought goods and services made outside the United States at a pace of $2,383.6 billion per year. Thus our trade deficit in that quarter was at a pace of $698.4 billion per year, our net exports were -$698.4 billion per year. How did we pay for this deficiency of exports relative to imports? Well, in net we sold some of our property and assets to foreigners, and we also borrowed from foreigners.

How much in assets did we sell of borrow?

$698.4 billion?

Again, no. Our net exports in the third quarter of 2007 were -$698.4 billion per year, which means that net foreign investment in the United States was then growing at a pace of $698.4 billion per year, which means that over three months net foreign investment in the United States grew by $698.4 billion per year x 1/4 year = $174.6 billion.

Anybody not confused? If anybody isn't confused yet, there is more that could follow. But it is best to stop and present a summary table of all the numbers we have talked about for the third quarter, July-September, of 2007:

The measure of the size of the American economy that nearly everybody focuses on and that is referred to the most is the Gross Domestic Product--GDP. The word "product" in this measure is important. It is a measure of how much America's businesses make, not how much they sell--that would be Final Sales of Domestic Product. The difference between the two is, as noted above, the change in inventories: Did businesses as a whole add to or subtract from their stock of goods being made and finished products in transit and waiting on store shelves? Did businesses "invest" in inventories by adding to their stock, or disinvest by reducing it? If this "inventory investment" item is positive then GDP will be greater than final sales; if this item is negative then GDP will be less.

And GDP is not what Americans buy for their households to use, for their businesses to build up capacity, and for their government to use in its functioning. That would be final sales to domestic purchasers.

Why does everybody focus on GDP rather than on either of the two final sales measures? Mostly for historical reasons: the National Income and Product accounting system was set up before World War II to focus on the “product” measures, and nobody has felt it important to make that change.

1.3.2. Real and Nominal Magnitudes

The $14,179.9 billion per year number that we have been talking about is what economists call a nominal GDP number: a measure of the value in dollars of the production of marketed goods and services. That number was higher in the third quarter of 2007 was higher than it had been a year or two earlier.

In the third quarter of 2006 the pace of nominal GDP had been $13,452.9 billion per year. In the third quarter of 2005 the pace of GDP had been $12,741.6 billion per year. Nominal GDP was thus 11.3% higher in the third quarter of 2007 than it had been two years earlier--a rate of growth in the pace at which America was producing marketed goods and services of 5.6% per year: an average over those two years waiting a year meant that the pace at which the American economy would have been producing sellable stuff--measured in dollars--would be 5.6% higher.

Why this "measured in dollars"? Because the BEA's nominal GDP estimates do not just grow when we produce stuff at a faster rate. They also grow when prices on average go up. Prices are going up and down all the time: some prices rising, some prices falling. But on average, in normal years, more dollar prices are rising than falling. So the BEA’s estimates of nominal GDP would grow in an average year even if Americans were not producing any more goods and services.

That means that the answer to the question “is nominal GDP growing?” is not the same as the answer to the question “is America making more valuable goods and services?” We would like the answer to the second question, but the estimates of nominal GDP answer only the first.

And so the BEA has another measure: not nominal GDP measured in dollars but real GDP measured in “constant dollars”: real GDP is nominal GDP adjusted for changes over time in the average dollar price of goods and services produced and marketed in the United States.

Ask the BEA what the pace of growth in the rate at which America was producing real marketed goods and services was, and it will tell you that real GDP between the third quarter of 2005 and the third quarter of 2007 grew at a pace of 2.5% per year. The difference between the 2.5% per year rate of growth of real GDP and the 5.6% rate of growth of nominal GDP over the period 2005:III to 2007:III is inflation: the fact that on average the dollar prices that goods and services sold for grew over that interval at a rate of 3.1% per year.

The BEA thus tells us that while nominal GDP was being produced at a pace of $12,741.6 billion per year in the third quarter of 2005, the value of that production at the average prices of 2005 was instead $12,683.6 billion per year--by July-September 2005 prices were a little bit higher than the average price in 2005. And by the third quarter of 2007 the BEA will tell you that while its estimate of nominal GDP is that $14,179.9 billion per year of marketed goods and services were being produced, its estimate of real GDP is that only $13,321.1 billion per year in chained 2005 dollars of marketed goods and services were being produced.

What is this "chained 2005 dollars"?

It is a way of telling us that the BEA is calculating the change in the average of all the prices in the economy in a particular and sophisticated way. It is attempting to separate out those changes in the flow of nominal GDP that are due to increases or decreased in the pace at which valuable goods and services are being produced and hitting the loading dock from those changes in the flow of nominal GDP that are due to increases or decreases in the average level of prices. This is not a straightforward task. If this was a full-year course, at this point it would be time digress into the index-number problem--into why this is not a straightforward task. But this is not a full year course.

1.3.3. The Circular Flow of Economic Activity

Back at the start of the nineteenth century a market economy where almost everybody specialized in one particular kind of job was a new thing. For most of human history most people had spent most of their time working to provide for their own households: growing their own food, weaving and sewing their own clothes, building their own houses, with purchases and sales in the market restricted to a relatively small part of total economic activity. But starting in the eighteenth century economic growth brought us to a place where, in northwestern Europe at least, for the first time most of what was produced was not consumed by the household that had made it, but was then sold in the marketplace and the money earned used to buy things that others had made.

This market economy disturbed a great many people. “What if it all went wrong?” they asked. “Could we wind up with a situation in which the yoga instructors were offering too many lessons on achieving inner peace that the weavers couldn’t buy, and the weavers had woven too much cloth that the farmers couldn’t buy, and that the farmers had grown too much food that the yoga instructors could not buy—so everyone was unable to satisfy their needs because they could not sell what they had produced, and because they could not sell what they had made they could not afford to buy what others had made.

It was French economist Jean-Baptiste Say who first proposed an answer back in 1803. He claimed that such a “general glut” was almost inconceivable, for every seller was also a purchaser. In a market economy, Say argued, every transaction has two sides, and nobody sells without intending to buy, and so purchasing power flows throughout the economy in a circle. Businesses produce and sell because they then intend to spend the money they earn hiring workers and rent capital: what they pay workers and capitalists in wages, salaries, rent, income, and dividends becomes their household incomes. But workers and capitalists only sell and rent their hours and their resources to businesses because they then intend to spend the money they earn buying goods and services. And those goods and services that they buy—well, those are the goods and services that the businesses make. So businesses sell final products to households and buy factor services from households, and households buy final products from and sell factor services to businesses.

We are going to want to keep finer track of the flow of purchasing power through the economy than just to say that households buy things (goods and services) from businesses and businesses buy things (labor-time and capital services) from households. We are going to want to keep track of what happens with the government, with financial market intermediaries, and with the rest of the world as well.

So let us start with household spending. Households take their incomes and divide them up into three parts: some they spend buying goods and services from businesses, some they use to pay taxes, and some they save and deposit in financial intermediaries—banks, mutual funds, 401(k) account holders, brokerages, et cetera. In the third quarter of 2007, households spent at a rate of $9,865.6 billion/year on consumption goods and services. Households also paid to governments at a rate of $2,467.8 billion/year in net taxes—the difference between tax checks written to governments and income support checks (like Social Security) written from governments to households. And total private savings were $1,851.9 billion/year: the sum of direct savings by households, and indirect savings on behalf of the households that owned them by businesses that took some of their profits and decided not to pay them out as dividends but to save them. That was how households disposed of the $14,185.3 billion/year in net incomes they received in the third quarter of 2007.

The federal, state, and local governments, in that quarter, took their $2,467.8 billion/year in net taxes, added to it $238.4 billion/year in net government borrowing, and spent $2,700.9 billion/year buying goods and services for the government. “Wait a minute,” you say: “2467.8 + 238.4 = 2706.2, not 2700.9.” Yep. The difference between 2706.2 and 2700.9 is the “statistical discrepancy.” The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis does not track ever single purchase and sale in the economy. Rather, it makes estimates. And these estimates are not quite consistent with each other. As long as the statistical discrepancy is small, we are not unhappy.

In the third quarter of 2007, financial intermediaries and businesses received $1,851.9 billion in private savings plus the $698.4 billion/year in net investment in the United States by foreigners. Of this $2,550.2 billion/year total, $238.4 billion/year was loaned to the government, and $2,311.9 billion/year was spent by businesses in gross private investment.

Add up the $9,865.6 billion/year in consumption spending, the $2,700.9 billion/year in government purchases, and the $2,311.9 billion/year in business investment spending, and then subtract off the -$698.4 billion/year in net exports, and we are back to our total of $14,179.8 billion/year for GDP in the third quarter of 2007.

What did the foreigners do with the extra $698.4 billion/year more that they sold us in imports than they bought in exports? Dollar bills are not of much use outside the United States, after all. The answer is that they took them and invested them in the United States: that’s the $698.4 billion/year in loans from abroad and purchases of property and assets in the United States that we saw flowing into financial intermediaries above.

Thus we see the kernel of truth in Jean-Baptiste Say’s idea: every transaction does have two sides, for every buyer there is a seller, and purchasing power does proceed throughout the economy, greasing a flow of production, sales, income, and purchases that in the U.S. economy now amounts to more than $14 trillion worth of commodities every year. In 1803 Jean-Baptiste Say was confident that nothing would interrupt or disturb this flow to render large numbers of workers without work or large piles of goods without buyers.

By 1829—after watching the depression of 1825-6 in England—he had a different view.

But that is for the next class: our first full class on depression economics.