Monthly GDP Estimates: Stabilization and Upswing...for Now

Here are the latest reads on monthly GDP:

Figure 1: Real GDP in billions Ch.2005$, SAAR (blue bars), Macroeconomic Advisers 8/17 release (green), and e-forecasting 8/19 release (red). NBER defined recession dates shaded gray, assuming end occurs at 2009M06. Source: BEA 2009Q2 advance release, Macroeconomic Advisers, e-forecasting, NBER.

Macroeconomic Advisers writes:

... The level of monthly GDP in June was 0.2% below the second-quarter average at an annual rate. Average monthly increases of 0.4% per month would support our latest tracking forecast of a 2.8% increase in GDP in the third quarter.

e-forecasting writes:

Following a decline of 3.2 percent in June, the real-time monthly GDP, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates in chained 2005 prices, increased 6.3 percent in July to $12,938.4 billion.